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Nowcast

Built for Stephen Moore · Economist

Combine leading indicators into one forward signal — expansion, caution, or contraction — with every component's contribution visible.

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Methodology · no black box

How the composite is built

Four steps, all reproducible. Every constant lives in the Components view and is editable.

Black-box indices ask for trust. Nowcast shows the entire pipeline: each indicator becomes a comparable −1…+1 signal, signals are weighted into one number, that number maps to a regime, and the contribution of every component is exposed so the call can be argued component by component.

Step 1 — Normalize each indicator to −1…+1

Each reading is measured against a neutral reference and divided by a scale (the move that equals a full ±1 swing), then signed by direction and clamped to the ±1 rails.

sign  = direction === "up" ? +1 : -1      // claims are "down": higher = worse
z     = clamp( ((value - neutral) / scale) * sign,  -1, +1 )

Step 2 — Weighted composite

Weights are normalized to shares, then the composite is the share-weighted average of the signals. Each component's contribution is its share × its signal — and the contributions sum exactly to the score.

shareᵢ        = weightᵢ / Σ weight
contributionᵢ = shareᵢ × zᵢ
score         = Σ contributionᵢ        // a single number in −1…+1

Step 3 — Map score to a regime

Contraction

score < −0.2

Leading indicators lean negative on balance — the weight of evidence points to a slowdown ahead.

Caution

−0.2 ≤ score ≤ +0.2

The signals are mixed and near neutral — no clear forward direction. Watch the components that move.

Expansion

score > +0.2

Leading indicators lean forward on balance — the weight of evidence points to growth ahead.

Step 4 — The seed read, worked end to end

Indicator	Reading	Neutral	Dir	z (signal)	Share	Contribution
Yield curve	15 bps	60	↑good	−0.38	25%	−0.094
Jobless claims	236 k / wk	225	↓bad	−0.16	18%	−0.028
ISM PMI	49.4 index	50	↑good	−0.10	20%	−0.020
Sentiment	69 index	78	↑good	−0.32	14%	−0.045
Housing starts	1.35 M units	1.45	↑good	−0.29	11%	−0.031
Equity 6m	8 %	0	↑good	+0.50	12%	+0.060
Σ contributions = composite score → Caution						−0.16

Illustrative — seeded readings, not live data and not an official forecast or investment advice. The model is intentionally simple and transparent; weights and references are choices you can change on the Components view to test how robust the call is.

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Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: LLC / BBG Academy. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.